November 30, 2022

DCTRS

Damascus Center for Theoretical and Civil Rights Studies

March Madness: NCAA tournament picks against the spread

No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders (-1, 141) vs. No. 3 Arkansas Razorbacks

Peterson: Texas Tech is allowing opponents to shoot 42.2% from three-point range in road and neutral court games, and though they do a solid job of generating turnovers, ranking seventh in the country in turnovers forced on a per possession basis, Arkansas has six players who grab at least one steal per game. Texas Tech is 4-9 against the spread away from Lubbock this season and Arkansas has been stout inside, ranking 11th in the country in blocks per game.

Pick: Arkansas Moneyline

No. 15 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. No. 7 Florida Gators (-8.5, 149)

Peterson: Oral Roberts has scored at least 75 points in each of its last 10 games but gives it up as well, ranking 281st in the country in points allowed on a per possession basis. Oral Roberts shoots 83.3% at the free-throw line in road and neutral court games while each of Florida’s top four scorers shoot at least 77.2% from the free-throw line. Oral Roberts’ duo of Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor are the top scoring duo in the country with a combined 43.1 points per game and Florida is allowing opponents to rebound 29.9% of their misses, which ranks 291st in the country.

Pick: Over 148

No. 8 Loyola (Chi.) Ramblers vs. No. 1 Illinois Fighting Illini (-7, 133.5)

Peterson: Loyola Chicago is slow and stout, giving up the forth-fewest points on a per possession basis in the country while ranking 342nd among 347 DI teams in possessions per game. Illinois has actually scored more points per possession in road games than home games, ranking 13th overall in points per possession and should make things one and done on offense for Loyola Chicago, ranking second in the country in rebound rate. Loyola Chicago allows the fewest free throw attempts per game with just one of the last 10 totals that have closed above 125 have gone over.

Pick: Under 133.5

No. 12 Oregon State Beavers vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-6, 142)

Peterson: Oregon State enters having covered 11 of its last 12 games but have yet to see a wing the caliber of Cade Cunningham, and though Cunningham is sixth in the country in turnovers per game with 4.2 and the team is 292nd in turnovers on a per possession basis, Cunningham has been a consistent producer with at least 15 points in each of his last 15 games. Oregon State ranks 201st in the country in steals forced on a per possession basis and have been hurt inside, ranking 268th in opponents two-point shooting percentage.

Pick: Oklahoma State -6

No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 1 Baylor Bears (-6.5, 137.5)

Peterson: Baylor is the top three-point shooting percentage team in college basketball and though Wisconsin had a terrific outside shooting performance against North Carolina, going 13 for 27 from distance, for the season the team is shooting 32.1% from the outside in road and neutral court games as compared with 39.5% in Madison. Baylor ranks seventh in the country in steals generated on a per possession basis and is second to only Gonzaga in points scored on a per possession basis.

Pick: Baylor -6.5

No. 11 Syracuse Orange at No. 3 West Virginia Mountaineers (-3.5, 147.5)

Peterson: A renewal of an old Big East rivalry should provide the Mountaineers an advantage on the glass as Syracuse is allowing opponents to rebound 36.7% of misses in road and neutral court games, only Mississippi Valley State and UT Rio Grande Valley have a worse defensive rebound rate away from home. West Virginia shoots better from the outside away from Morgantown, making 37.1% of their three-pointers away from home as opposed to 34.2% from distance at home and of the points Syracuse allows, 36.1% of them are on three-pointers.

Pick: West Virginia -3.5

No. 10 Rutgers Scarlet Knights at No. 2 Houston Cougars (-8.5, 132)

Peterson: Houston is giving up the third-fewest points on a per possession basis in all of college basketball and gets a Rutgers team that has been scuffling on offense. Rutgers scores 12.3 points fewer per 100 possessions in road and neutral court games than at home. Rutgers is also the worst free throw shooting team remaining in the field at 63.3% and is a team that knocks down just 30.8% of its three-pointers and faces a Cougars team that is seventh in the country in three-point shooting percentage defense.

Pick: Under 132.5

No. 13 North Texas Mean Green vs. No. 5 Villanova Wildcats (-7, 127)

Peterson: In three games without Collin Gillespie, Villanova is scoring 12.5 points fewer per 100 possessions than with him. North Texas has given up 65 points or fewer in 10 of its last 11 games that have not gone to overtime and both squads rank in the bottom 55 in possessions per game. Both teams rank outside the top 160 in percentage of their misses that get reeled in as an offensive rebound, and Villanova ranks 23rd in the country in fewest free throw attempts surrendered per game on defense.

Pick: Under 127

VSiN, The Sports Betting Network, offers more expert sports betting content in a free daily email at VSiN.com/email